Archive April 2015
In 2005 most people were using a Nokia phone, handling emails at their desk and believed social media, Facebook and LinkedIn were just a fad and of no possible use.
Switch to 2015, Nokia is out of the phone business, emails find us wherever we are 24/7 and social media has evolved into a multi-trillion dollar industry complete with new jobs, professions and services.
Fast forward to 2025 and who knows what we will be doing, thinking and working at and on, but the thing I’m certain about is that it will not just be what it is today.
There is a perfect storm of technology, economics, culture, politics and humanity that are all independently evolving, but when you put them altogether you have a profound movement of change ahead.
On the technology front alone there are significant backdrops that will change how, where, when and who works these include the internet of things, big data, artificial intelligence, mobile, cloud, 3D printing, machine thinking, robots, drones, autonomous vehicles, smart cities, intelligent buildings, just to name a few.
With the certainty of change, but the uncertainty of what that change may be ABC Local Nightlife’s Tony Delroy and I set out on one of our regular on-air radio expeditions to explore the Future of Work.
Will robots have taken over your job by 2025? What work will we be doing in 2025 that today sounds like a science fiction joke? What are 2025’s most likely jobs and industries? Which of today’s professions are likely to have become irrelevant by 2030? What new professions will have $100,000 plus salaries in 2020, but most people today don’t even know exist? Where, when and how might you work in the next decade and beyond? and Will there even be enough jobs for everyone in the future?
A really great discussion made better by lots of callers sharing their experiences, fears and thoughts.
Have a listen now (45 minutes) and then share this link and your thoughts on the Future of Work.
We are expecting two (2) million more Ozzie’s over the next few decades, this coupled with changing economic conditions and declining house affordability has led to a changing housing landscape and a changing of the great Australian dream of owning a quarter acre of golden Australian soil.
By 2030 owning a double story house sitting majestically on a 1/4 acres will be a sign of wealth, or of forebears having purchased in previous “good times”. Instead many of us will move into apartments, learn to love smaller rooms and share communal outdoor spaces.
It’s interesting to track and contrast the evolution of migrants into Australia, who often through necessity and lack of disposable income, would start a business and live above the shop to save a few quid. In this earlier romantic time, the sign of having achieved was to leave the flat above the shop and move into a standalone dwelling.
Today we’re doing the opposite. We’re leaving the standalone dwelling, often because of lack of disposable income and moving to an apartment (no longer called a flat) above retail shops or mixed use medium or high density buildings and marketing this as “trendy” and “desirable”.
In a recent foresight strategy session with one of my large commercial / residential developer client we spoke of what they might be building in the next decade and beyond, what those spaces may look like, who will be living and working in them and what residents will want their multi-purpose home spaces to offer them.
This discussion is soaked in an understanding of the changing demographics, changing workstyle where increasingly we will work where and when is appropriate which will require our work and home spaces to do double duty, or if they are specialist work spaces to be extraordinary and inspiring work palaces.
These new buildings will be dripping in technology that monitors and adjusts physical space to our every whim and makes smaller spaces seem virtually much larger and more accommodating.
In this week radio segments I also looked at the possibility of growing satellite cities between our capital cities, the future of low to medium density mixed purpose buildings springing up around existing infrastructure and transportation and even dabbled into some of the technologies that may be building our homes, apartments and commercial building of tomorrow.
So have a listen to the segments now, share it around with your friends and then lets chat about the cities and houses we want to live in, in 2030 and beyond.
4BC – Clare Blake (15 minutes 29 secs)
ABC Wide Bay (7 mins 10 secs)
In the wake of the ruling that compelled iiNet and other ISP providers to release the names and contact details of 4,726 account holders that may have downloaded the movie Dallas Buyers Club, there’s been lots of discussion about this being a watershed moment in Australia and illegal downloading, but to me this is a far more interesting conversation than piracy and downloading as Sonya Feldhoff of ABC radio Adelaide and I chatted about what this ruling really means.
Lets get the basics out-of-the-way:
- downloading is not illegal in Australia, it never has been and is likely never to be, it is copyright infringement that is at stake here.
- the court has to yet to accept the letter of demand that will be sent to those thought likely of infringing so it is unlikely that huge penalties will be sought.
- it is not going to be easy to find the real culprits if many of these are internet cafe’s, businesses or commercial entities, or if they’re teenagers what happens then. And
- if they do find a culprit and they refuse to pay, will it be worth the effort and expense to bring them to court?
I am not condoning what they are claimed to have done. Stealing is stealing and we have for far too long had a sense of digital entitlement believing that if we can access it on our screens we’re entitled to have it for free, regardless of who owns it, or the pains they went through to create it.
To me this was a PR victory at best, it has many people talking about it.
But the deeper issue here is that once again we are enacting laws and becoming self-righteous after the fact.
This technology and this activity has been around for a long time, we could have enacted laws and adjusted cultural norms long before this and now that we have it’s all too late.
There will of course be people who will download into the future, but it is far more likely that soon this will be far less common as we move closer to what happened in the music industry, where we moved from buying an album, to buying a song, to illegally pirating a song and now on to relatively low spend subscription models where we can legally listen to as many songs as we want to for one all-inclusive price.
The ease and ubiquity of subscribing has made it far easier to have the music you want on any device at any time and has been the catalyst for the drop in illegal music downloads, it has also changed the income artists, writers and distributors make and forced many artists to re-imagine how they can earn money from their music, causing
many to go back on the road and tour, sign merchandising deals and extend beyond their craft into other business.
Movie watching and creation will follow a similar path. In Australia we are beginning to see the move away from the dominance of free to air and cable, to on demand movie services offering low monthly all-inclusive subscriptions.
We are also seeing content creation moving beyond the traditional movie studios into the every-person space and the growth of video broadcasting services like vine and periscope democratise video creation and distribution.
It is far more likely that as our smart TV’s and phones come loaded with more and more features that make it easy to subscribe to and watch low-cost all you can devour services, that we will forego the difficulty of finding
and downloading a movie to instead watching it legally anywhere at anytime.
Beyond this is the notion and worth of copyright. It once made perfect sense as a protection tool, but it is expensive, unwieldy and time-consuming.
In today’s fast paced, always innovating world, are copyright’s and trademarks still viable?
The answer is often no.
As good as they are, they may not readily suit future fast paced business needs. So how, if at all, do we protect our intellectual property in this brave new world?
The problem with our response to the future is that is so often predicated on our past behaviors and thinking and increasingly what we did and wanted before, are not the best indicators of what we will want and do tomorrow.
Perhaps instead we should have the legal and cultural debate at the beginning of a technology’s existence, not after its imminent demise.
Have a listen to the segment now (22 minutes 19 seconds), share this round and let’s get the debate started.
The traditional route to fund great ideas has always been from savings, parents, relatives, friends, banks, venture capitalists, angel investors and listing, but increasingly this is being gazumped by crowdfunding, online portals that match up those looking for money with those willing to invest.
The major difference between old and new is that instead of getting the money from one source, you will get it from many people, each unknown to the other, all willing to contribute different amounts of money towards your innovation / invention.
Most of these sites work on a similar model, join the site, describe your idea, why it’s special, what outcomes you expect, how much money you need, what you’re offering in return and when you need the money by and then send it live.
On most sites if you raise all the money you’ve asked for, by the due date you specified, you’ll receive the funds collected (minus site commissions and charges), if you don’t raise all the money by the due date you specified then the money is not collected, investors aren’t out-of-pocket and you don’t receive any money at all.
In 2011, the year these sites started to gain marketplace traction, there was about $1.5 billion in funds raised across all crowdfunding sites, last year that total figure rose to $10 billion and it is expected to double to $20 billion in 2015.
There are thousands of crowdfunding sites, including:
For more insights on Crowdfunding have a listen to a couple of the radio segments I’ve recently done…
Clare Blake – 4BC (19 minutes 30 seconds)
David Dowsett – ABC WideBay (6 minutes 35 seconds)