Archive January 2017
“Half of all children starting kindergarten this year have no chance of getting a job in 2032, if we continue to educate them the way we currently are” is one of the findings in a new bold trend report exploring the world of work in 2030 compiled by Australian futurist, Morris Miselowski, one of the world’s leading business and education visionaries.
In 2030, 1 in 4 cars sold will be fully autonomous. Robots, Artificial Intelligence, Drones and Connected Cities will all be as ordinary as gas, electricity and water. Mobile phones, keyboards and mice will be relegated to museums and the notion of 9 – 5 Monday to Friday work will have given way to project and task work done however, whenever and wherever it’s appropriate.
In 2030 the Australian population will have grown to 28,481,000 (23,972,800 today), against a global population of 8,500,766 (7,349,472 today). 1 in 5 Australian’s will be over 60 years old; the ratio of workers to retirees will 3:1 (5:1 today); the average Australian house will costs $3,000,000 ($658,608 today) and the average household income will be $275,000 ($145,400 today).
In 2030 India will have surpassed China as the most populous country on the earth; America’s global dominance will have waned and the world’s middle class will have risen from 2.1 billion today to 4.9 billion, 66% of whom will be living in Asia. It will be an era of lower global birth rates and of living longer and healthier lives.
In 2030 there will be too many human workers competing globally for too few jobs, with many of today’s routine jobs having been handed over to technology and in an ironical twist this new technology will be responsible for creating millions of new human jobs, tasks and careers.
This year’s kinder students will live to 120, work into their 90’s, undertake 2 simultaneous income producing activities at any one time in a lifetime of work that includes 6 careers and 14 jobs,
undertaking tasks and working in industries that are yet to be discovered and if they are going to succeed in a 2030 world of work” they will need to create their own work, not apply for it”.
In 2030 Australian retention rates for completing Year 12 will be 90% (83.6% today), but there will no written exams to mark the end of schooling, nor a single university score required to gain entry to higher education.
“This is the world our kindergarten starters of 2015 will face when they enter the workforce, and it’s this world of vastly changed horizons that we must prepare them for” says Miselowski.
It will demand different of its workforce, as we see new careers rising including transhumanist designers, genome specialists, nano medics, machine linguists, gamification engineers amongst many others as well as the continuation of many of today’s trades and service careers, but what they do, how, where and when they do it will have all evolved – “nothing then, will be as it is now!” says Miselowski.
Today’s education system however, backed by well-intentioned but short sighted educators and parents, is still underpinned by an archaic industrial revolution model of teaching dominated by the 3R’s (reading, writing and arithmetic – 2 of which don’t even begin with an “R”) that was right for an era where student outcomes, careers paths and choices industry were well known.
In 2032 the 3R’s won’t work, they conspire to teach rigidity, uniformity, conformity and compliance. What today’s kindergarten students really need from us is to be inspired by the 3C’s of Collaboration, Creativity and Communication so that they can influence, innovate and change their world ahead.
Have a listen to this weeks on air chats with ABC radio Far North’s Kier Shorey and Hong Kong Radio 3’s Phil Whelan and then share your thoughts on our children’s education
ABC Far North, Kier Shorey, Monday 1st February (12 mins 47 secs)
Hong Kong Radio 3, Phil Whelan, Wednesday 2nd February (17 mins 01 secs)
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg recently announced the purchase of a new scientific Artificially Intelligent based search engine Meta, that allows the best and brightest scientific and medical minds to share, find and collaborate on the most up to date research, Meta’s point of difference is that it not only quickly finds the research you asked for, but better yet finds what you would have asked for, if you knew it existed.
This potential exponential leap led Hong Kong 3’s Phil Whelan to consider where medicine and research is headed as this week we chat about the fundamental shift away from waiting for our body to break down before we fix it, to a wellness phase of on going physical maintenance where we prevent our body from breaking down.
And just in time for this discussion comes another first, a new San Francisco based medical clinic that for a US$149 per month subscription that allows you to access medical services as often as you want. Health startup Forward uses a combination of traditional medicine and medical practices in tandem with apps and wearables to monitor patients on-going health and intervene early.
All in all a great chat, so listen now (13 minutes 33 seconds) and then share your thoughts on the Future of Medicine.
It’s my daughter Rebecca’s 21st birthday and I’m so proud, so happy and so glad to celebrate the woman she’s become and to think back on the last 21 years of her and our family’s life and in this nostalgic mood I’ve indulgently dedicated this week’s on-air chat with Hong Kong 3’s Phil Whelan to looking back at 1996, at how we lived, what was important then and the amazing tech that we were using 21 years ago.
1. PC users did not have even Pentium II in 1996 (Pentium II came in 1997).
2. Celeron processors were a thing of the future.
3. 16 MB RAM was a big deal.
4. 200 MHz P6 was released by Intel and it was a great thing that time.
5. Apple was sinking and few people could predict that Apple would make such a great comeback after few years.
6. CD-RW was announced. DVD was knocking on the door and came in the next year.
7. Palm Pilot hit the market for the consumers a big milestone for the technology industry.
8. Digital camera was digital but not affordable.
9 Monochrome monitor (display) was the norm for PC. Did you have a color monitor?
10. LCD monitor was like a science fiction.
11. Sub $1,000 computers were emerging as a cool thing.
12. Microsoft launched IntelliMouse in 1996.
1. Java programming language started to catch the attention of the technology world as a platform independent language.
2. Windows 95 was considered to be a cool thing. So cool, that 1 million copies were purchased by users in four days.
3. Microsoft’s Office 97 was published in December 2006. It was published in a CD-ROM but also ‘on a set of 45 3½-inch floppy disks’.
4. In 1996, there was no MP3 format. Life was really dull for most PC users.
5. According to Wikipedia, there was no major virus attack in 1996. Strange, isn’t it?
6. Macromedia Flash 1.0 was introduced. Would you like to work with it now?
7. Microsoft released DirectX 2.0 in 1996 and it is a milestone in computer gaming industry.
8. Microsoft also released Windows CE.
9. Bill Gates has just been listed by Forbes in 1995 as the richest man in the world. In 1996, he was not a household name like today.
1. Internet did not exist in many countries in the world.
2. What’s broadband?
3. Launched in 1995, Amazon.com started to catch attention.
4. Netgear came into existence.
5. Google was born in 1996 but hardly anyone knew about it outside of Stanford.
6. Web page design was like a nightmare in the absence of easy software and very few people could do it.
7. Hotmail was launched in 1996.
8. New York Times started its own website. It was a big deal that time as very few newspapers bothered to bear the expense of having a website and publishing their own materials in it.
9. eBay was there in 1996 but did buy or sell anything? Did you even know that it existed?
10. Microsoft launched Internet Explorer 3 on August 1996. In 1996, Microsoft had only 20% of the browser market share.
11. MSNBC was launched jointly by Microsoft and NBC.
Computer and Video Games
1. Pokémon was officially released in February 1996. It is one of the most successful games of all time.
2. Nintendo 64 was born and became popular.
3. “Deep Blue” created a media storm by playing with world chess champion Garry Kasparov. Deep Blue lost in 1996 but then won in 1997. I often feel that Deep Blue is neglected in the history of IT.
Mobile Phone and Wireless Technology
1. Many countries in the world did not have mobile phone.
2. SMS was theoretically there but 99% users did not find it to be useful. In fact, according to one statistics, in 1995 ‘on average only 0.4 messages per GSM customer per month‘.
3. MMS was science fiction.
4. WIFI, WIMax- only existed in the dream of researchers.
5. No Bluetooth technology.
6. Mobile phone ringtones were a melody and there was no ring tone industry.
7. Mobile phone were heavy and uber expensive.
So have a listen now (12 minutes 45 seconds) and then I’d love to hear your memories of 1996.
CES (The Consumer and Electronic Show) is the ultimate geek and nerd convention held each year, in early January in Las Vegas, attracts over 180,000 visitors who are all there to find the latest tech machinations, thinking, prototypes and products that may just become the next big thing.
This year’s show was no different, with an incredible array of must-have’s, didn’t know I needed it but now I can’t live without it and I’ll never need that on show, but more telling for me than the individual products are the overarching themes and tech directions and in a series of interviews with Hong Kong Radio 3’s Phil Whelan, Glynn Greensmith of ABC Local radio and Kier Shorey of ABC Far North Queensland I chatted about what CES 2017 tells us about the tech world ahead.
Like last year show there wasn’t one outstanding new product or category for me, but that’s symptomatic of our times with technology now moving out of its teenage years into its adulthood and instead of wild outbursts and bravado, we’re seeing a more tempered approach that’s working through what we already have and know and trying to find a better use and purpose for it.
Theme 1 is voice controlled technology, and Amazon’s Alexa seems to be the frontrunner this year with even Amazon’ expectation of 30-40 products carrying their voice assisted tech being surpassed, with its inclusion in over 100+ prototypes and products ranging from cars, to fridges, wash machines, watches and more, which given that Alexa is technically American-centric and not really available internationally makes it an interesting choice, but nevertheless it points strongly to the day when we routinely start talking to our machines and they answering back.
Theme 2 was drones available in every shape, size, colour, purpose and future promise ranging from a return of last years favourite the single manned Ehang 184 quadcopter drone to what I’m sure will become this years drone equivalent of last years must have selfie stick, the plastic lightweight and easy to use hover camera that follows you around with its 4K camera beaming back images of you from the sky to all your adoring followers and fans.
Autonomous cars and robots were also on show, again great stuff but no new standouts, although Nvidia showed strong promise with its AI capable in-car technology and level 5 autonomous driving technology.
And my favourite part of CES are the weird and wonderful gadgets on show, here’s just a few:
Kérastase Hair Coach connected hair brush,
Power Vision’s PowerRay the underwater fishing drone that lets you catch fish using your underwater drone and watch and control all the drones’ actions from the safety of your boat on your VR headset,
FoldiMate due out in the latter half of this year and able to fold all your laundry for you, and my favourite
Oombrella the smart umbrella that tells you when its raining outside (or you could just go low-tech and look outside for yourself)
Great shows – so take a listen now for more CES 2017 insights and tech overviews:
Phil Whelan Hong Kong Radio 3 – 10th Jan 2017 (11 minutes 44 seconds) .
Glynn Greensmith ABC Local Radio – It’s Just Not Cricket – 14th Jan 2017 (14 mins 22 secs)
Kier Shorey – ABC Far North Queensland – 16th January 2017 (11 minutes 08 seconds)