What job will you be doing in 2025? | ABC Gippsland

cubes__1263664041_5641Will we have jobs in 2025 and beyond? If we do, what will they be, what will we do and how and when will we do it?

With the growing cry that technology is taking our jobs, statistics around that robots will displace 500,000 jobs in Australia over the next decade and a general downer about the long-term availability of employment and work, it’s not hard to feel that it’s all over, all too hard, let’s go home, hunker down and start living a self-sufficient off the grid life.

If this is how you’re feeling, then get a life!

Really, it’s not all doom and gloom and that’s where Rachel and Sarah of ABC Gippsland’s Tuesday Chinwag and I started our chat this week, looking at the pragmatic reality of work in the future and the jobs that we might soon be doing.

The conversation started by acknowledging that there is currently a huge displacement in the workforce and that this may continue for the next 10 years and beyond.

That technology, as it has done throughout the millenniums, is changing the employment and work landscape and the tasks and jobs that once had work currency, no longer do and that the world of science fiction and “that’s impossible” may hold the clues to many of our future industries and careers.

The very notion of work itself is also evolving away from the 9-5, Monday to Friday industrial revolution model that served us well for the past 150 years, to a more dynamic and fluid model of work gets done best, where and when its most appropriate to the task(s) and people involved.

Our conversation quickly turned to the reality that routinised jobs across blue and white-collar workers (how old-fashioned) are fast disappearing as consumers demand the end products and services, but are reluctant to pay too much for them, leaving manufacturers and suppliers to find ever cheaper forms of production usually ending in a technology rather than a human employment solution.

What does this leave for humans to do? My answer is always wrapped in this thought:

“Technology is for answering the questions, humans are for asking the questions.”

There are many of our existing jobs and a tonne of new jobs in tomorrow’s job horizon.

Work for many of us will be a portfolio of activities, some for income, some for enjoyment, some for philanthropy and some just because. We will work for an employer and perhaps have side activities selling our service on Airtasker, our craft on Etsy, our products on ebay, or maybe driving a couple of hours a month for Uber to pay off a bill.

Like life, there is no single answer to tomorrow’s employment landscape, except to say that we will work. But what work is, what we get paid for, how much and how often are not straight forward or linear.

Get set for a brand new workspace, that today seems just as improbable as abolishing slavery, stopping child labour, working 5 days a week and an 8 hour day all did in their time and place in history.

Have a listen now (13 minutes) and then share or like this and let’s get the debate on the future of work started.


 

 

Are you going to lose your job to a #robot? | ABC, 4BC

Ukrainian Dmitry Balandin poses with his wooden model Cylon in his flat in ZaporizhzhyaJumping straight out of the world of science fiction robots seems to be making a mad dash to take over our lives and our jobs. Everywhere we look there’s another story of robots in the workplace, drones in our skies, machines driving our cars and jobs that are being lost to our mechanical brothers, but surely it’s not all that bad.

The robot (think Star Wars R2D2), android (think Star Wars C3PO) and drone marketplace is growing exponentially as technology and our needs evolve and we have certainly had more chatter in the press over the last year or so than ever before.

r2d2

R2D2

C-3PO_droid

C3P0

 

The stats are that service robots (robots that serve us and are typically in defence, medical, logistics, construction and in our houses) account for approximately 4.1 million units worldwide, in an industry worth around $6 billion, with year on year growth of 12%, which will take it to 18 million plus units in 2020 and an industry then worth approximately $15.69 billion.

The other major category of robots are industrial robots the ones we see in car manufacturing and large plants which currently account for 1.7 million robots with a year on year growth of around 23.7% that in 2020 will take it to about 4.1 million units, in an industry then worth $15.69 billion.

Now that the stats are out-of-the-way and we have a picture that in sheer volume terms shows it’s unlikely we’re going to be overrun by robots in the foreseeable future, lets take a calmer look at some of the things we’ve got them doing for us already.

In medicine, we have them running around hospitals, either digitally possessed by doctors who are physically in one place but able to offer remote consultations by jumping inside a robot and doing the rounds of far off hospitals, or we have physicians performing operations remotely guiding the hands and tasks of far distant machines, to perform the most difficult and complex of surgeries.

How about Baxter, a robot that learns a task in 90 seconds and then can repeat that task over and over again until you tell it to stop, all for the cost of about $3.40 per hour.

What about robot newsreaders, receptionists and sales teams

How about engaging a robot bricklayer for the perfect house finish
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Or7A5w4ZE

Agriculture is also another great adopter of robots

and my favourite robot at the moment is Jibo, not yet available, but possibly coming to your home very soon

Robots are set to work, live and play side by side with us in the coming years and there presence soon will be as ordinary and commonplace as the car, the dishwasher and the smart phone, so lets figure out how to tame them and make best use of them.

Have a listen to a couple of radio interviews I did today on robots and then share or like this post and let me know what you’re most looking forward to your robot doing for you.

ABC WideBay (8 minutes) – David Dowsett – Monday 23rd March

4BC – Evening Program (10 minutes) – Monday 23rd March

Robots ain’t what they used to be, they’re what they’re going to be…. | 6PR radio

me and robotsThe “Robot Revolution” is set to change the world’s industries forever.

We all know Rosey the robot maid in the Jetsons. However, while Robot butlers and maids seem to be the most common expectation we have of our new metallic friends, robots of all other sizes, shapes and complexities are making their debut into the world of work and play.

With an estimated 1.7 million industrial robots working worldwide and an expected 12% increase this year alone, be sure that there’s a robot revolution happening, and almost all of today’s industries will soon benefit from the robots of tomorrow; driving efficiencies and reducing costs across the board.

The medicine and health care industry will see a huge growth and surge in telemedicine, allowing doctors and medical professionals to share, consult and even operate from anywhere, as doctor’s climb inside a virtual robot and drive themselves around remote hospitals and operating theatres.

Offices and factories will also benefit from the world of advanced robotics, with remote vehicle robots jockeying their virtual executives and workers around distant and remote global offices and factories.

There will also be an array of factory robots including the interactive production robot, Baxter, who can learn and replicate any repetitive task in 90 seconds and costs around $22,000 to purchase. This gives “him” an operating cost of $3.52 per hour; the same cost as the average Chinese worker.

And while we’re on China, guess who currently has the most industrial robots working in the world yes, China and the stats tell us that for the next 10 years at least that’s not going to change – China has 70,000 industrial robots currently working, Nth America 33,000, Japan 30,000, South Korea 24,000 and Germany 19,5000 (Source IFR).

In our homes, we have already seen the march to automation with smart houses becoming more and more popular. Society is already familiar with technology that can lock your doors for you, turn on the sprinklers, adjust the thermostat and vacuum your floors.

As technology gets more advanced, your home will soon include things like temperature adjustment based on your levels of alertness, lights dimming themselves or brightening in accordance to your mood, and eventually services combining technology, such as using a search engine to look up recipes and the oven starts preheating, in the event you are in the mood to bake.

Even on our roads over the next years will start to be populated by self-driving cars and remote controlled heavy vehicle will continue to grow in popularity.

All this robot talk peaked 6PR’s Peter Bell to want to chat about robots, past present and future and for listeners to then chime in with what they would like their robots to do for them, so have a listen now and then let me know what you’d love your future robot to do for you.

This video could change your mind about the robotics revolution | Technology Spectator

indexJust like horses were made redundant as a mode of transport when Henry Ford started mass producing cars early last century, there’s a growing fear that humans will also soon face being put out to pasture.

That’s the controversial message at the heart of this viral video on robotics currently doing the rounds on the web. It offers a rather compelling and grim argument on the scale and impact of the automation trend.

It’s hard to miss the ongoing debate around robotics and their impact on the workforce. If you believe everything you read, this one movement is set to crush the middle class, revolutionise work and axe jobs all at the same time. It’s an issue that is being discussed at all levels of society, from the open forums of Reddit all the way to the executive circles of the Davos Connection Hayman Island Leadership Retreat.

The latest video from prolific YouTube broadcaster CGP Grey doesn’t quite hint at an outcome for the trend, but with clever wordplay and pictures he paints the rise of the robots as a negative. And in doing so makes quite a few compelling points, enough to make this columnist think twice about the prospects of a robot revolution.

To put the video to the test, we asked two experts who view the robotics revolution in a rather positive light. Did it change their mind? Well, no.

“The video is mostly accurate in the presentation of the facts, but flawed in its argument,” says senior lecturer in mechanical engineering at University of Melbourne’s Denny Oetomo.

“It is absurd to imagine that the world will stand by as a significant proportion of mankind goes unemployed without reacting,” he adds.

“First world nations, which constitute the major push of automation, will not be able to sustain their economies by investing into technologies that causes a quarter of their workforce to go unemployed.”

Business futurist Morris Miselowski says the creation of new jobs will offset any losses endured by the rise of robotics. About 60 per cent of the tasks we will be doing in the next 10 years do not exist yet, he argues.

“Ten years ago hardly anyone worked in, or made, any real money in the digital and social media space and now there’s hardly a job that doesn’t contain tasks that are influenced by it, let alone the millions of jobs created within it,” he says.

Though, Miselowski admits that new technologies will pose some challenges for humanity.

“The path ahead requires us to cut the ties with many of our past norms and cultural values,” he says.

“It will require us, to re-examine what ‘work’ is, who has to do it, where and when and if that means that not everybody works then how else to people gain income, a sense of dignity and achievement.”

article by Harrison Polites

source

my full response:

Morris Miselowski, business futurist

(Miselowski replied to both questions in one response.)

It’s an age old debate and technology and automation have always been predicted to do away with work — in the ’70s and ’80s populist predictions had us headed to three-day work weeks, paperless office and hover boards.

Much of the video paints a picture of technology replacing jobs and there’s an estimate I’ve heard that by 2030 we will have shed two billion jobs.

To compound this we will add three billion people to our planet over the next 35 years that all deserve to be educated, housed, fed, employed and have quality of life.

There will be a huge displacement of jobs as we move to replace routine jobs with technology and bots, this is inevitable.

But the conversation of the new jobs that are going to be created, and new industries gets little air time.

Many of the jobs that we are going to lose have only been created in the last 100 years, why can’t we do this again and again and again, because through the millenniums that’s exactly what we’ve done.

Ten years ago hardly anyone worked in, or made, any real money in the digital and social media space and now there’s hardly a job that doesn’t contain tasks that are influenced by it, let alone the millions of jobs created within it.

I routinely posit that 60 per cent of the tasks we’ll be doing in 10 years haven’t yet been thought of.

The role and nature of work will change and our interplay with technology will evolve.

My theory on our relationship with technology future goes like this:

Digital data (which we’re drowning in and is readily available at the end of any search engine or semantic exploration) is the raw ingredients from which we will make decision and take actions. Knowledge is what technology will routinely give us as it takes this vast amount of data and crafts it into something specific and useful to our inquiry and at this point humans will step in and take this data and knowledge and add the spice of humanity to it and turn it into true wisdom and purpose.

This like many of our other future issues cannot and will not be solved by a single solution or approach.

Many jobs will continue to require people and artisans to use their wisdom to create and make.

People are herd animals and most of us do want to be around other people.

The choice to purchase items made by robots is a human choice, we have instructed the technology and machines to do it and theoretically if we told them to stop and we’ll do it instead, they would and we could — but we won’t.

The path ahead requires us to cut the ties with many of our past norms and cultural values. It will require us, to re-examine what “work” is, who has to do it, where and when and if that means that not everybody works then how else to people gain income, a sense of dignity and achievement.

Although looking into the eye of the storm, it seems bleak and we question what jobs will there be left for us to do, if technology does replace us on the factory and office floors, I am confident that we will have new jobs, new industries, but more importantly that we will begin to have the conversation that allows for new work styles and practices to evolve; where the notion of work and what we pay people for will be debated and perhaps without returning to a totalitarian, communist or any other word that has populist negative connotations we will begin to explore the very notion of work and its place in our society.

Robots reading the news, what will they think of next?

womanormachiKodomoroid and Otonaroid made news today in Tokyo and around the world by claiming to be the first android news readers.

This pair are the invention of Professor Hiroshi Ishiguro of Osaka University a robotics expert and they have gone on display at Tokyo museum with a purpose of being virtual news readers mouthing the words given to them,  and making appropriate facial and hand gestures all whilst trying to look convincing doing it.

Trying to get avatars and androids to read the news is not new.

The first attempt was in 2007 when the London based avatar Ananova was given the virtual screen and a 24 hour licence to read all that’s happenings in the world, but her efforts were short lived, as were the efforts of specialist news reading apps Guide, Qwiki and Winston and many others.

Despite a belief that will occur one day, we still seem to have an aversion to hearing the news of the day from an inanimate object, but will this change as we march into an ever more digital world?

This was the discussion of the afternoon between Michael and Clare of radio 4BC and I as we delved into Astro Boy, robots, androids, Japanese hologramatic pop stars, why the Japanese are the world leaders of robots and what else androids and robots might do for us in the very near future.

Have a listen now.

 

Which comes first, the technology, the crime or the law?

1004ceoChange is difficult for most of us to cope with, but when the change affects all of us and we have to collectively make a decision if and how to deal with it, the degree of difficulty just went up exponentially – welcome to the world of law making and enforcement.

In our regular segment ABC radio WideBay’s David Dowsett and I look at how the horizon technologies of 3D printing, robots and drones, big data, self driving cars, wearable computers and bio metrics are all creating their own future societal dilemmas, not from the use of technology in the hands of those that seek to do good, but rather from the very few who will choose to use it for evil.

As a democratic society facing these challenges do we collaboratively make laws and give powers to the law enforcers in advance of the risk, or do we wait till after the fact to frame laws and empower police accordingly?

It’s a tough one, but for me we would be delinquent if we didn’t have the debate as early as possible and begin framing societal responses to how and what we want and where foreseeable place laws and societal expectations in place before the fact, rather than after.

Have a listen to the segment now and then share your thoughts on how we deal with this chicken and egg dilemma.

What comes first the crime or the law?

sdcc-total-recall-remake-future-police-car
Should legislation, laws and policing predict and resource against imminent new crime frontiers, or must they wait to see evidence of them before we legislate, enforce and police against them?

This conundrum has been with us since time immemorial and doesn’t look to have a resolution soon, but what we do know is that crime has long jumped beyond the physical world into the digital world and the combination of the two and the incredible array of new technologies ahead has made trying to answer this question even more important and ever more time sesnitive.

In our regular on air segment Tony Delroy of ABC Radio Nightline and I chatted with Victoria Police’s Chief Forensic Scientist Bryan Found about Policing in the Future, the opportunities and problems facing our society, the changing nature of crime and law enforcement and the Victoria Police Department’s innovation around the use of Forensics.

There’s so much to  cover in this topic that we could only scratched the surface, but here are the notes I took into studio with me:

  • Internet of things: if we continue to put all our objects online and make them searchable and discoverable how does this change the notion of theft and search and rescue;  with increasingly connected houses will police be able to digitally and remotely look inside our homes (and cars) when alerted to; what is acceptable street surveillance, what is acceptable personal surveillance?
  • Big data: technology is getting better at mining and interpreting information that’s online – how far do we go, do we start to predict incidents, accidents and thefts in advance of their occurrence?
  • Robots: usage of drones and robots in police work – what for and how?
  • Self-driving cars – will we need new road laws, who will be liable for accidents and compensation, what will a licence be and who will need one?
  • Wearable computers – Google Glass and others gadgets are imminent – what can we use them for, which laws cover them, can we use them for face recognition, what is acceptable to record and by whom, these devices will be able to track and record our every movement – who can / will have access to these recordings, can police access it, if so where and when?
  • Bio Metrics – fingerprint recognition/ facial recognition, iris and DNA have all become important policing tools– increasingly we are moving from a decentralised system  to an in-situ possibility for the policeman on the beat can use these tools in real time – is this acceptable?
  • 3D printing – trademark issues, copyright issues, using it for niceness not gun printing; using it for 3D printing of face composites for law enforcement

The answers to these questions and lots more, the fascinating advancement in the use of Forensics in Policing and a great range of listener questions all make for an incredibly lively and provocative segment, so have a listen now and then share your thoughts with me on the Future of Policing.

(length: 40 minutes)

Careers and Beyond

future-jobs-jpgEver wanted to know what the best career choices are? Here’s a great article, hot off the presses on future career paths and it even has some choice quotes from your favourite business futurist.

reprinted from Careers FAQ

The A-Z of top jobs for 2014 and beyond
09 Dec 2013
By Marni Williams

Where are the shortages?

According to the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), employment is set to grow by 820,100 jobs, or 7.1 per cent, to November 2017 across most industries and occupations in Australia. That’s decent growth, but if you want to get a job in 2014 you need to know where the demand will be.

DEEWR says the biggest areas for job growth will be healthcare and assistance (13 per cent), retail trade (8.9 per cent) and construction (10.1 per cent): ‘Together, these three industries are expected to provide nearly half of the total growth in employment over the next five years’.

Business futurist Morris Miselowski suggests we will have six careers within a lifetime, so if you’re thinking about which direction to take next it would pay to consider one of the golden opportunities below – because this is where the jobs will be.
Top jobs in 2014:

Accounting and finance
Aged and disabled care
Business bankers
Community engagement and community development
Construction
Data miners, data scientists, data anything…
Dental technicians
Digital marketing managers
Education
Health technologists and medical device reps
Mobile developers
Online retailers
Programmers
Project managers
Senior leasing executives
Tourism and hospitality
Website content writers
3D printers
Accounting and finance

Jobs for accountants are still going strong and are set to increase by 12.6 per cent to 2017 (DEEWR).

There will be demand in the financial and wealth management areas, specifically for senior financial planners, multilingual financial planners and financial paraplanners.

Global recruiter Hays says: ‘In accountancy and finance we expect to see new jobs created within the area of business and IT transformation … so that an organisation can adapt to growth and make cost savings. It is also important for audit/compliance purposes, particularly if the company plans to become ASX listed or has been acquired by an overseas head office’.
Aged and disabled care

Aged and disabled care has seen growth of over 102 per cent over the last five years and it will only continue to grow exponentially as preventative care, residential care, therapeutic treatments and hospital services will be required by large numbers of ageing baby boomers.

Business bankers

Business banking is a growth area, with new roles created in specialist areas. Credit assessors with a strong mortgage background and a DCA or equivalent will be in high demand as new teams are created in major banks. In addition, candidates with front-end retail experience will be sought as banks change their approach to business banking.
Community engagement and community development

With our cities needing to cope with growing populations, housing shortages and changing demographics, local councils are getting serious about community engagement. So, too, are businesses as they understand the importance of community outreach and really engaging with customers, residents and businesses.
Construction

The ongoing shortage of surveyors continues as students shy away from maths and science. With many bound to retire, it’s not just an area of opportunity, it’s vital to a strengthening construction industry.

Hays highlights a ‘historical’ shortage of estimators encompassing the residential, commercial and civil sectors. They are also seeing demand for civil estimators in response to recent restructures.
Data miners, data scientists, data anything…

Business futurist Miselowski is excited: ‘We have spent the last 30 years feeding information about ourselves and the world into the digital ether, without getting much wisdom back. The next frontier is mining this information and turning it into purposeful knowledge. A new breed of employee is emerging called data scientists, who are tasked with the job of refining data to enable good decisions’.

Hays agrees, saying that employers are increasingly looking for applicants with a Master in Information Systems. This is one job that can translate across many sectors.
Dental technicians

With our ageing population, the fact that most of us retain our own teeth much longer, and an increase in demand for cosmetic dental work, dental technicians will be in high demand alongside a range of health professions. According to the Australian Dental Association, demand for dental prostheses is down, but specialist areas such as crowns and bridges are up.
Digital marketing managers

When I asked her about trending jobs, Director of Hays (NSW & ACT) Jane McNeill put digital marketing high on her list:

‘Digital marketing managers are in demand as growth and investment in digital marketing is creating a “digital disconnect” in which the jobs market in digital marketing technology is hungry for skilled workers. The evolution of digital marketing is set to continue over the next decade and this will have a huge impact on the skills employers need. As this continues to be a growing area candidates with technical knowledge or digital expertise are in high demand.’
Education

We’ve seen impressive numbers turn to online education all over the world, but will there be jobs to follow? Fairfax’s Employment Forecast says that population growth will see the education sector continue to rise, having ‘shrugged off the weakness in the international student sub-sector to record continued jobs growth, with positions up 4.6 per cent’.

A recent government report indicates that the international student sector could grow by 30 per cent by the end of the decade. With continued population growth and the investment in skills and training programs, the outlook for the sector is bright.

It has also noted a surge in pre-school teacher positions and ‘a significant shortage of early childhood teachers’. Positions in the tertiary education sector are also up 3.4 per cent.
Health technologists and medical device reps

You may know that healthcare is experiencing the biggest growth of all sectors, but it’s also changing. With developments in everything from genetics to wearable technologies and robotics, a plethora of new jobs are expected. Miselowski expects new titles such as ‘genetic counsellor’, ‘telemedical practitioner’ and a range of medical device reps to appear.

Anyone who works in the allied health profession but also understands computers and technology will find plenty of opportunities on the horizon. And a range of medical device reps are already needed, as Hay’s Jane McNeil says:

‘In life sciences there are new products coming to market and companies are keen to employ medical device reps with like-for-like experience so that they can hit the ground running. An increasing number of roles now also require clinical backgrounds.’
Mobile developers

Technology recruiter Greythorn is optimistic in its report: ‘With mobile access to the web growing at an exponential rate, and the way in which we interact with the web being driven more and more toward mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, mobile developers are becoming a highly sought after entity’.

Expertise across Android, iOS and HTML 5, coupled with e-commerce integration skills, social networking and API knowledge will set you up to take advantage of this growth area.
Online retailers

It’s hardly ground-breaking news: according to the Australian and New Zealand Online Shopping Market 2013 report, online retail is growing strongly.

National Australia Bank’s latest online retail sales index tells us that online sales have hit 6.2 per cent of retail spending. What’s more, the average annual spend for Australian online shoppers is expected to hit $1750 by the end of this year and 90 per cent of online shoppers expect to maintain or increase their spending over the next year.
Programmers

For a moment there IT might have looked like it was having a slow patch, but the industry is still growing strongly and more growth is expected with the continued rollout of the NBN. However, programmers are now working on short-term contracts and this is set to continue. As Greythorn says, ‘project-based recruitment will be one of the pillars of growth and activity for our industry’. Java and PHP skills are, and will continue to be, highly valued.
Project managers

It’s a broad field, but DEEWR predicts contract, program and project administrators to increase by a whopping 16.4 per cent to 2017. It might be time to really work on those project management skills.
Senior leasing executives

McNeill cites several large new shopping centre developments and upgrades as a driver of real estate jobs in some regional areas – ‘there is more vacant space to fill with tenants. This has created demand for senior leasing executives in the retail space’.
Tourism and hospitality

According to the Fairfax Employment Forecast, the sector is turning around, with jobs once again growing. Burgeoning areas include medical tourism, ancestry travel and sustainable tourism.
Website content writers

As Google declared ‘content is king’, journalists couldn’t believe their ears. Fairfax agrees: ‘In a surprising turnaround, positions for journalists and other writers continue to grow, thanks to the spurt in online content at the expense of more traditional media’.

The journalism and media category actually grew by 3.1 per cent in 2013, which is above-average growth. With the exponential growth in online content production, those with the skills to write it will find themselves in high demand.
3D printers

Ok, so this one might not exactly be ready for 2014, but it’s not far off and is one of the most exciting developments to come. St Vincent’s Hospital in Melbourne will be trialling 3D printing of human body organs within five years and expect that printing human spare parts could become normal within 10 years.

The CSIRO has even initiated the Australian Additive Manufacturing Network to link research organisations with industry to make the use of 3D printers commercially effective. Get involved in 2014 and you’ll be ready for the next set of top jobs coming our way!

Homemade TEDx

I was sent this homemade version of last week’s TEDx presentation, it reminds me of the counterfeit movies (not that I have ever seen one) where you can see the tops of the audiences heads, occasionally hear their comments and the vision is not quite right, but I though it was worth posting anyway, until the real thing arrives.

http://youtu.be/TjofVWg76hI